Diagnosis Skoliosis: Vikings Path to a QB of the Future

The Minnesota Vikings are on the path to finding a new quarterback to lead this team into the future, and for some, this is an extremely scary time, but for others (like myself) the movement towards the future is not only exciting, but spells a recipe for success.

After years of the purgatory of average with Kirk Cousins, the Vikings drew a contractual line in the sand and actually stuck to their word with Kirk, allowing him to walk in free agency. This move put the Cousins Crusaders in a very difficult position. On one hand, Kirk has been a safety blanket for the team for the better part of a decade, putting up very solid statistics and even exceeding expectations in 2022 and 2023 prior to the Achilles tear. Seeing him leave puts the team in a vulnerable position of potential QB purgatory that we have seen with other squads, most notably the Cleveland Browns. On the other hand, seeing the contract that Kirk received from Atlanta and the comparisons in contracts to the GOAT Tom Brady has brought a lot of Kirk fans to their knees in realization that Cousins' hierarchy of needs and priorities focuses primarily on his financial success. Cousins truly deserves a bust in Canton, but it would be for being the best contract negotiator in NFL history. His short length, fully guaranteed deals have not only brought him and his family copious amounts of money, but it has also eroded a once supremely talented roster, and handcuffed the team from replenishing with talent outside of the NFL draft.

For the contingency of fans who are scared of falling into QB purgatory, or becoming a much maligned squad such as the Texans, Lions, or Browns of the past, I would caution them to take a breath. The Vikings since 1990 have been a veritable QB carousel of retreads, journeymen, and limited success from in-house drafted talent. Those names include Rich Gannon, Jim McMahon, Warren Moon, Brad Johnson, Randall Cunningham, Jeff George, Daunte Culpepper, Spergon Wynn, Gus Frerotte, Tarvaris Jackson, Kelly Holcomb, Brooks Bollinger, Brett Favre, Joe Webb, Christian Ponder, Donovan McNabb, Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford, Case Keenum, Josh Dobbs, and Nick Mullens. During that time, the Vikings have only had a record below .500 11 times, including this last season. More than half the time they have fielded competitive teams, being first in their division 9 times, and they have shown that you can be successful despite the QB situation. The Vikings offense going into this offseason has been described as a "furnished apartment" for a new QB, meaning that nearly all of the other pieces on offense are in place with high quality players AND the team has an excellent coaching staff who will ensure success.

Regardless of your views on how the Vikings should have addressed the Cousins situation this offseason, it no longer matters. The Vikings and Cousins have both moved on, a bridge QB has been brought in, and the Vikings are making moves prior to the 2024 draft which all signal a view towards the future and a rookie QB. The last time that the Vikings needed a QB when they held pick 11 in the draft, they also went into that offseason with the best young WR in the NFL in Randy Moss. QB's went in each of the first 3 selections in this draft in 1999 (Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, and Akili Smith). The Vikings stood pat and took Daunte Culpepper, and after a year on the bench, Daunte became an excellent QB before his career derailed due to knee injuries. The other recent history that the Vikings have with drafting QB's in round one are with Teddy Bridgewater, who looked promising and showed development each year before nearly losing his leg in a freak injury, and the trainwreck of a selection in Christian Ponder. The process that was taken in selecting Ponder was terrible, as he was a poor prospect in a poor QB draft, and the Vikings reached in the hopes of finding a QB rather than having a sound scouting process. This draft, and the injuries of the aforementioned drafted QB's have left many Vikings fans, myself included, with Purple PTSD to go along with our Purple Pessimism. To all of the faithful Vikings fans out there, we need to be able to compartmentalize those situations and realize that we have a new front office, a new coaching staff, a new scouting staff, and the past isn't there to haunt us. If a front office is too scared to take risks on a QB, you aren't cut out for this league. If you don't take those chances, you'll never find the next Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson. None of the QB's in this upcoming draft are guaranteed that level of play, let alone success, but there are several who absolutely warrant selections in the first round.

So here is the million dollar question: Who will the Vikings target at QB in the draft and how will they maneuver to get them. Well, maneuvering is absolutely on the menu for Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. The Vikings already made the move to acquire pick number 23 from the Texans in the first round. With the soft rebuild that the Vikings are going through, this move only makes sense if they are attempting to gather picks to make another jump into the top 5 picks of the draft in order to select their QB. KAM has assuredly already had conversations with all of the teams in the top 5, and it is an easy assumption that they have soft deals worked out with one of more of those teams which could be executed as soon as.... right now, or will be executed on draft night.

The timeline for execution of these trades, in my opinion, revolves around pick number 3 with the New England Patriots. The Pats are in a huge rebuild, with essentially no position on the roster being safe from requiring an upgrade. This of course means that they do need a QB, and are in a prime position to take one at number 3, but with so many holes on the roster, facing a multi-year rebuild, and having the possibility of not wanting to thrust a rookie QB into a terrible situation, they could opt to move pick 3. If the Patriots are willing to make this move, this is the spot where a trade up by the Vikings to pick 3 could occur prior to the draft. The leading thought is that the Vikings have their eyes set on multiple QB's. According the GM Adofo-Mensah's recent presser, the team loves multiple QB's, and loves other QB's and players depending on the value of where they are selected. It is smart for Minnesota to not show their hand as far as aggression for one particular QB, but you would have to assume that they don't have 3-4 guys who are all rated exactly the same. There will be at one who they view as their prime target, and if that QB is available at pick 3, this is when you could expect them to attempt a godfather offer to come from KAM and the Vikes.

The second options for trades would be with the Cardinals at pick 4 or the Chargers at pick 5. Both of these trades would most likely occur during the draft based on how the selections are made ahead of them. The Cardinals and Monti Ossenfort have shown a precedent from last season of being willing to trade down from early picks to acquire more draft capital, but the real question surrounds how much the Cardinals would want in return and are they willing to walk away from a talent falling in their lap like Marvin Harrison Jr. at WR. If you are foolish and buy into what pundits like those at the PHNX Cardinals podcast are spinning, then the Cardinals would need three 1st round picks, and then several more mid round picks from this year and the future. The problem is, the Vikings are able to engage in contract talks with more than one team, which is a concept that they don't seem to understand. The Vikings would also be trading up to presumably take the 4th QB in the draft. While that QB may be the one the Vikes wanted all along, it still can devalue the QB tax that would be required for that move ahead. The reality is that the Cardinals will probably ask for too much from any potential trade partner, and it will make it easy for them to select a generational WR. That leaves the Chargers, who are also in a soft rebuild with plenty of needs, and a new head coach in Harbaugh who will be looking to add resources which can help him mold his new team into his vision. The Chargers seem like a much more willing and reasonable minded trade candidate, who's offer would be plenty more palatable for the Vikings. There are also some other interesting points about trading up with the Chargers. Firstly, they will be less likely to trade with some of the other suitors in this draft because they are AFC and divisional opponents. Second, if the remaining QB on the board is Harbaughs prodigal son J.J. McCarthy, then he may be more willing to trade with a team that would place him into an enviable situation, and no where is more enviable than the ready made offense of the Vikings.

So, who are the real options for the Vikings to go after in this draft? Well, of course anyone is possible. For me, though, I have 4 players who I would be happy to have at varying degrees, and I would feel comfortable with all of them from the scope of them coming into this system and with a guru like KOC molding them. Those 4 guys, in my personal order, are J.J. McCarthy, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Michael Penix Jr. My ratings on these QB's varies plenty from other "analysts" and pundits, but while none of these prospects are perfect, each of them have extremely interesting traits that I would be willing to bet on. The only one out of that group who I wouldn't move up for is Penix because of his age and lack of mobility, but he'd be someone that I'd be willing to sit and take at pick 11. I won't be going into a complete breakdown of each of these QB's in this blog, but I will be linking Mike and I's QB breakdown episode of The Lineman Lounge below where you can gather my thoughts. In addition, you absolutely should join us on the Lineman Lounge NFL Draft live watch along on April 25th, where we are sure to have even more conversations on all of these QB's along with our thoughts on each and every pick.